That’s it, it’s the start of week two, we currently stand at $1,202 which is 80% of our goal. Thanks to all those that have and please donate to all those who haven’t.
My friend Hugh who I’ve mentioned before also wrote about education reform yesterday, he spoke about the transfer test and making school a more formative period, totally agree. Anyway, check it out for further insight, his blog is – bogueblog.net.
Today I’ve decided to write about my gambling habits and how after 3 years I’m still nearly £2,000 up on Monsieur Paddy. On Thursday my betting account will have been open for 1,000 days. I created it on my 18th birthday and I like to think I represent somebody with a healthy relationship with gambling. For the first year of my betting career I bet in £1, £2.50 and very seldom £5, almost exclusively on GAA and football. In my second year of betting I’ve upped to £5 standard bet and anything more is special, although now I bet almost exclusively on MMA with a rare Sunday football bet. Everybody I speak to that doesn’t gamble has the same reaction to me doing it usually ‘That’s a fool’s game.’ or ‘There’s no winning in that.’, well I’m here to say that I respectfully disagree.
So let’s get into the nitty gritty of it then shall we? In 1,000 days I have deposited £115 and withdrawn £2,059.03 with a net gain of £1,912.58. That works out at £13.46 a week profit for almost 3 years, cheers Paddy. My biggest win in memory was a £23.57 stake on an MMA bout which won me a profit of £64. That’s also my biggest win and it’s worth noting that £23.57 was my profit from that night of betting so it was at no real risk. So, there’s that, please stop telling me that there’s no winning in gambling. While we’re talking about money I’d like to confess that I also sometimes take say £15 for a day and bet say three big four ways knowing I’m going to lose it but just for the craic so it’s not like I’m really stringent.
Now how did I manage that? Outside of just being strict with my stakes and not chasing a 156,492,887,220.01/1 15 fold accumulator every weekend, it has to do with intent in my opinion. I don’t bet for massive profit, I don’t really care how much I win to be honest, if I bet £1 and win £1 yeah it’s only a pound but that’s still a 100% profit. Hence, I try to weigh the risk and the reward. I also have to force myself to be strict and stay away from risky matchups entirely. My rule for football bets now is that if you can imagine it being a draw don’t bother betting. I bet because it gives me a team to support or a fighter to back, it just enhances my experience when watching sports. Now I do bet in doubles and three ways mostly, four ways are significantly harder to pull off, if you look at the statistics I’m sure you’d see a massive drop off in winning four ways from winning three ways . The fact that profit margin comes secondary to profit for me also means that I’m not chasing those big risky bets which can rack up your losses.
So to go into detail, I watch every UFC event and since May it feels like it’s been on every single Saturday. Each UFC event has a fight card (schedule) which is split into three sections. The first is the early prelims – 2 fights, the second is the prelims – 3-4 fights and the third is the main card – 5-6 fights. I’ll always put a double on the early prelims, if the odds are heavily in favour of one fighter I’ll go and research their record and see how the majority of their fights finish, see how their opponents fights usually finish and bet on the method of victory accordingly. If the odds are really close I’ll usually research the fighters and how they match up, if there’s an obvious winner to me then I’ll back them otherwise I’ll bet whether the fight will go the distance or not. Then sometimes you get a fight where the odds are wrong, the bookies don’t seem to have considered the style match ups which can lead to warped odds every now and again.
Which leads me to the next part of the guide. If I put a £5 bet on the early prelims and lose I’ll only ever lose another two £5 bets before I just cut my losses and stop for the night. Also if I win the first bet then say I win another £5 I’ll use that profit as one of my three £5 bets. It just means that the maximum I can lose on any given night is £15. So the way I explain it to people who ask is that when I lose on a UFC event I’m losing a maximum of £15 but normally £9, when I win I’m usually making a profit of between £40-£70 and say there’s four UFC’s a month I’ll usually win on two and lose on two. I only started properly following MMA in like September last year and since then my knowledge gained has meant money gained.
To all the haters, I know that the way I choose to gamble isn’t everyone’s cup of tea and some people have great success with big accumulators but with a profit margin of 94.5% after three years of placing multiple bets almost every weekend isn’t bad. I also am aware of gambling addiction and that some people don’t have the ability to stop etc. but to be frank like what does that even have to do with anything? Maybe nobody would even mention gambling addiction and I’m just being paranoid.
Well, it’s 3.34am on 8/11/20, I’m watching the UFC right now and I’ve just won a £1 bet for a £6.32 profit, although I lost a £2 bet on the prelims so now I have a net profit of £4.32 I’ll put a £2.32 stake on the next three fights and play with the odds to try and get a three way at about 3/1. If I lose it I’ll bet the other £2 profit that I have and if I lose that then I’ll finish the night even.
So to close, I’d like to think I have a pretty beneficial relationship with Paddy Power and I’d like to thank the man himself for letting me take a £2,000 profit in 3 years.